How U.S. Travel Trends Are Impacting Tour Operators: Navigating Uncertainty in a Changing Industry

The travel industry thrives on adaptability. When COVID-19 hit, tour operators had to pivot quickly, finding new ways to keep travelers moving safely while managing cancellations, shifting regulations, and evolving traveler preferences. But while a global pandemic is a rare event, economic shifts, policy changes, and global uncertainty happen far more frequently—and they can disrupt bookings just as much.

Tourists reconsider destinations. International visitors face new entry restrictions. Airlines adjust routes. And tour operators? They’re left navigating all of this all while trying to keep their business and their reputation afloat.

Right now, changes in the U.S. are influencing global travel behavior and the impact is already being felt across the industry. After all, the U.S. has a major impact on the industry as a whole, the WTTC reporting that the "U.S. remains the world's most powerful travel and tourism market" in the world, according to its 2024 Economic Impact Trends Report.

The good news? Tour operators who stay ahead of these shifts—by monitoring trends, adapting their offerings, and using the right booking software to get it all done—can manage uncertainty more effectively and protect their bottom line; no matter what's happening or where it's happening around the world.

How U.S. Changes are Impacting International Travel

At this moment, international travelers are reconsidering travel to the U.S., while American travelers are adjusting their plans based on both domestic and global developments. Given that the American tourism industry contributes to $2.36 trillion of the nation's economy—welcoming more than 66 million international travelers in 2023 as well as 80% of tourism revenue coming from domestic travelers—it’s no surprise that tour operators are feeling this impact firsthand. Many are already reporting an uptick in trip cancellations, low or zero bookings, and concerned messages from customers.

Edward S. Kitengeso Lyimo, who founded Pristine Trails in Tanzania said, "We recently had a group of 8 cancel their summer travel outside of the United States (to East Africa) because they were nervous about how the ongoing political climate there may somehow affect their trip."

Political beliefs aside, recent U.S. policy changes are influencing travel behavior.

Travel visas and immigration policies

Recent changes to U.S. travel policies have raised concerns among some travelers, including green card holders and international tourists, about entry and re-entry requirements. Reports of increased scrutiny at border checkpoints have led some to reconsider travel plans. Additionally, travelers from countries that typically qualify for the U.S. Visa Waiver Program, such as those using an ESTA visa, have reported experiencing longer processing times and additional questioning and even detainment upon arrival.

Flight safety concerns

It’s not just visa concerns affecting travel. Widespread layoffs within the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have raised questions about aviation safety, following a rise in reported incidents. This has led some Americans to reconsider airline travel, despite it being a safe mode of transportation.

Perceptions of Americans abroad and foreigners in the United States

Some travelers—both visiting the U.S. and traveling from the U.S.—are factoring local attitudes toward tourism into their trip decisions. 

Isabelle Twarog, a tour operator from Las Vegas Adventures who works exclusively with French-speaking customers, has been getting a lot of emails from concerned customers. "People are afraid to be stopped at the immigration when entering the States, or that Americans are not too welcoming to foreigners right now and may be rude to tourists; those kind of messages."

Michael William Jones who is a tour guide for The Cheese Experience in Amsterdam, added, "I've seen lots of discussion on FB travel groups asking if it's safe for them to visit (or will they be made welcome). I answer they will be made very welcome, but if they want to discuss their home politics, expect some robust conversations, but certainly nothing violent or aggressive. Additionally, I've noticed a slight drop in enquiries from the US, but certainly I'm getting a lot less private walks booked (which are much more expensive than public) from the US compared to last year. So I guess that's really down to worries about their economy."

The economic situation

Finally, economic factors, including fluctuations in disposable income and rising costs, are shaping travel spending habits. Essentially, the rise of costs in leisure vacations have caused American travelers to delay their typical spring and summer bookings, according to the Wall Street Journal. And, if that's not enough, these economic shifts have trickled to other places.

For instance, some Canadian travelers are boycotting travel to the United States. This is concerning as year after year, Canadians make up the largest demographic of international visitors to the United States,

Scott Locorini, a U.S. owner and operator for AE Adventures, has already noticed significant cancellations from his normal Canadian travelers.

And, Sarah Covey from Vibrant Travelers, a tour operator based in the U.S., said about one of her U.S. tours, "I had some initial interest, but no deposits or bookings. There are lots of nerves about the state of people’s finances for people within the US, and spending high dollar amounts for US travel feels less appealing. This tour will likely be cancelled in the next month as suppliers will need deposits soon, and without bookings, I can’t float the funds to wait and see, and not get a return on the investment."

Other Considerations to Keep in Mind

Not every headline translates into a major shift in travel behavior. While political and economic changes can have ripple effects, factors like exchange rates, flight costs, and logistical changes often have a greater influence on bookings.

Mark Brown, owner of Let Me Show You London, notes:"Our actual booking data tells an interesting story. We've seen a 15% increase in advance U.S. bookings compared to last year, with no spike in cancellations. Exchange rates matter more than politics—travelers hesitate more over currency fluctuations than election cycles. Our biggest recent concern wasn’t politics but the introduction of the UK ETA visa waiver, similar to the U.S. ESTA. Even then, it didn’t stop tour bookings."

Other tour operators we spoke to said the same. These insights highlight an important reality: while uncertainty is inevitable, travelers who can go, will go. The key for tour operators is ensuring they remain adaptable and reliable.

3 Ways Tour Operators Can Be Prepared in Times of Uncertainty

Political shifts, policy changes, and global events can disrupt travel behavior, leading to cancellations, shifting demand, and logistical challenges. But, what if instead of reacting to uncertainty, tour operators could be proactive and stay ahead of this unpredictability, being able to better manage risks and maintain steady bookings?

1. Monitor trends and adapt marketing strategies

Election years, visa changes, and geopolitical tensions can directly influence traveler confidence. Some tour operators are already reporting a rise in cancellations from international visitors hesitant to enter the U.S., while others are seeing an increase in domestic bookings as Americans opt to travel within the country rather than abroad. The key is to anticipate and adjust accordingly.

• Track booking patterns in real time: Monitoring booking trends is essential during uncertain periods. Are international travelers canceling more frequently? Are domestic bookings on the rise? Are travelers booking more last-minute? Having a robust system in place that tracks booking behavior can help you pivot before you experience a downturn.

• Adjust your target audience: If international travel demand slows, shift marketing efforts toward domestic travelers. Conversely, if U.S. travelers are hesitating on international trips, look at ways to create more appealing local experiences that still feel adventurous.

• Set clear expectations for travelers: If political or policy-related factors might impact a trip, be transparent. Use automated messaging or booking page updates to notify travelers about potential disruptions, visa requirements, or travel advisory changes. Clarity builds confidence and reduces unexpected cancellations.

• Enhance your offerings based on demand: If customers hesitate to book long-haul trips, introduce more regional tours or experiences that provide an alternative. Look for patterns in travel preferences and tweak your itineraries accordingly.

  
  

2. Reevaluate cancellation policies to stay competitive

No tour operator wants to receive a notification or request to cancel a trip. When uncertainty increases, travelers are far more likely to hesitate before booking, which makes flexible cancellation policies a major selling point. Tour operators who fail to adapt risk losing customers to competitors offering better options.

• Implement tiered cancellation policies: Offering a range of cancellation options (e.g., full refunds for early cancellations, partial refunds closer to the departure date, and credit-only policies for last-minute cancellations) allows you to balance flexibility with financial stability.

• Encourage rescheduling over refunds: Instead of issuing full refunds, incentivize travelers to rebook. Offer discounts, credits, or perks for future travel to keep revenue within your business rather than losing it altogether.

• Automate cancellation and refund processing: Manually handling cancellations can be a headache. Using a system that automatically applies the correct refund policies, processes credits, and notifies customers reduces administrative burdens and improves efficiency.

• Provide cancellation insurance options: If travelers are worried about political instability, offer partnerships with third-party travel insurance providers or integrate cancellation protection directly into the booking process. This gives customers peace of mind while reducing refund requests.

  
  

3. Prepare for shifting international travel policies

Changes in visa requirements, border policies, and government travel restrictions can have an immediate impact on tour bookings. Tour operators need to be prepared to adjust quickly:

• Ensure your booking system captures key traveler information: If visa policies change or new documentation is required, your booking system should be able to capture and store this information efficiently. Ensure forms can collect passport details, proof of travel insurance, or vaccination records as needed.

• Offer alternative destinations: If a popular international route is affected by new policies, highlight alternative locations that provide similar experiences. Diversifying your portfolio helps mitigate risk.

• Stay updated on policy changes: Regularly monitor travel advisories, visa requirement updates, and any potential regulatory shifts that could impact your destinations. Keeping your team and customers informed can help prevent disruptions.

• Adjust itineraries in real-time: If new restrictions emerge, use a flexible booking platform that allows you to update itineraries quickly and notify customers of changes. Being proactive reduces confusion and keeps travelers engaged.

How the Right Travel Booking Software Can Help You Stay Ahead

Rather than reacting to headlines, tour operators can focus on strategies that provide flexibility for both their business and their customers. A robust booking and reservation system helps in several ways:

• Dynamic booking management: Adjust tour offerings in real-time based on demand shifts, seasonality, or emerging travel restrictions.

• Automated travel document collection: Ensure travelers provide passports, visas, and other required documents at the time of booking, reducing last-minute disruptions.

• White-label booking solutions: Offer real-time availability, seamless rescheduling, and direct booking options under your own brand.

• Tour demand forecasting: Test interest in new tours before launching them, allowing data-driven decision-making.

• Flexible payment plans: Allow installment payments to help travelers manage fluctuating costs and encourage more bookings.

• Automated currency adjustments: Show live pricing in multiple currencies, helping international travelers make informed booking decisions.

• Customizable cancellation & refund policies: Offer travelers more confidence by providing clear, automated refund or rebooking options.

• Group & private tour optimization: Easily shift between group and private tours based on real-time demand, maximizing revenue.

  
  

While global events will always introduce uncertainty, the right tools empower tour operators to adapt—ensuring they can continue offering incredible experiences, no matter what’s happening in the world.

What’s Next for Tour Operators?: Be Proactive with Tour Amigo

Uncertainty in travel is inevitable—whether due to shifting U.S. policies, global events, or unexpected disruptions. Some travelers may hold back, while others forge ahead, but one thing is clear: tour operators who anticipate and prepare for change will always be in the best position to succeed.

By staying on top of (and leveraging) booking trends, adjusting marketing strategies accordingly, offering flexible policies, and more, operators can turn uncertainty into opportunity. And with the right software at your disposal, you can take out a lot of the guesswork.

Tour Amigo gives you the tools to track demand, optimize pricing, and keep bookings steady—no matter what’s happening in the world. 

Ready to future-proof your business? Get in touch with the Tour Amigo team today!